As the Gorton and Denton byelection gets underway in south-east Manchester, voters are faced with a tight race among Labour, the Green Party, and Reform UK. This byelection is considered one of the most unpredictable in recent years, with outcomes that could significantly impact the political landscape.

### The Stakes for the Major Contenders

Labour is defending a significant majority of over 13,000 votes from their previous victory, but faces stiff competition from both the Greens and Reform UK. The Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, argues that the race is a close contest between them and Reform UK, suggesting that Labour is not a major contender in this byelection. Polanski has emphasized that a Green victory would challenge Labour’s current position and force the party to reassess its strategies.

Reform UK, led by Matt Goodwin, aims to capitalize on any division among left-leaning voters. Goodwin, a controversial figure due to his remarks on various social issues, represents a party that is positioning itself as a viable alternative to traditional political choices. The outcome of this election could demonstrate the growing influence of Reform UK in areas traditionally dominated by Labour.

### Labour's Defensive Strategy

Labour, under Keir Starmer's leadership, is appealing to left-leaning voters by stressing the importance of consolidating votes to prevent a Reform UK victory. The party's rhetoric suggests that a vote for the Greens could inadvertently lead to a win for the Reform Party. This strategy is reminiscent of Labour’s previous campaign in Caerphilly, which ended in a surprising defeat to Plaid Cymru.

Labour’s candidate, Angeliki Stogia, was chosen after Andy Burnham was excluded from running, adding to the party's challenges. The outcome of the election will be critical for Starmer's strategy of appealing to right-leaning voters while maintaining core progressive support. A loss could signal a need for a significant shift in tactics, while a victory might offer a temporary reprieve.

### The Implications of the Result

The outcome of the Gorton and Denton byelection could serve as a bellwether for future political contests in the UK. A win for the Green Party would mark a significant shift in voter alignment, highlighting environmental concerns and progressive values. Conversely, a victory for Reform UK could signal a shift towards new political narratives focused on reform and traditional values.

Political analysts, like Professor Will Jennings from the University of Southampton, view this election as pivotal. Jennings suggests that a Labour defeat could be detrimental to their national strategy. Conversely, a win might bolster Labour's position, despite anticipated challenges in upcoming local and devolved elections.

As voters cast their ballots, the results will not only determine the immediate political landscape in Gorton and Denton but also provide insights into the evolving dynamics of British politics. The declared result, expected early Friday morning, will be watched closely by political observers across the country.